This seminar will provide an introduction to probability, statistics, and random processes. We will then apply these concepts to test hypotheses in the real world. Are there expert stock-pickers? Do athletes choke in high-pressure situations? Does momentum help candidates in Presidential primary elections? Is there really a placebo effect?

In this class, we will explore questions that are difficult to answer through traditional scientific experiments. We will try to find natural experiments in the real world to address these questions for which a controlled experiment would be unethical, impractical, or impossible. Some examples: Do police reduce crime? Does education increase income? Do TV ads help political candidates? Does good parenting matter?

This course will provide a basic introduction to game theory which can be used to study any strategic situation. We will discuss applications to elections, candidate platforms, public policy, sports, and business.

This course will provide an introduction to statistical regression which we will use to predict election outcomes. We will discuss reasons that opinion polls are unreliable, and discover that events during a campaign are not as important as typically thought.

It is not in the interest of any individual to vote since the probability of influencing an election outcome is so small. We will discuss several explanations for the prevalence of voting and test what kinds of forces influence voter turnout. Do religion, education, wealth, or community involvement effect voter turnout in a causal way?

When will the private market succeed and when will it be inefficient or unjust? We will discuss externalities, market inefficiencies, and inequalities. When governments should intervene in the economy? Examples will come from American public policy including sin taxes, social insurance programs, minimum wage, and the debate over publicly provided health insurance.

Political pundits in the media read closely into every step of a Presidential campaign. Every speech, ad, and gaffe is closely scrutinized, but does any of this really matter? We will take a scientific look at this question. Through the use of lab experiments, field experiments, and natural experiments, we will discuss what, if anything, can influence the results of an election.

This course will provide an introduction to game theory and how it applies to the real world. In particular, we will use game theory to think about political elections. Why do citizens vote when the chance of influencing the election result is so low? Why don't candidates choose more centrist platforms in order to sway moderate voters? No prior familiarity with game theory is necessary.

Does education lead to wealth? Does minimum wage reduce employment? Does good parenting matter? This course will discuss important but difficult questions that cannot be answered by traditional scientific experiments. To answer these questions, we must look for experiments that occur naturally in the real world. We will discuss natural experiments and how they can be applied to everyday problems in politics, economics, business, education, public policy, and health.